points per 100 possessions

Illustration of obtaining an elliptical contour for the bivariate Gaussian distribution from Gaussians placed on both the offensive and defensive ratings. The Lakers are pointed to the right and is tightly compact near the break even line in the lower left of all the ellipses. Second in the 1960s there were a lot of possessions, reaching its peak in 1961 where it hit about 128 possessions per game compared to the 100 we see today. Answer: Points per Possession is Points / Possessions. Very call David, thanks for the response. Or write about sports? With per-possession stats, we can control for the number of opportunities each team had to score. This will give an insight into their elliptical distributions. On opening night, the Cleveland Cavaliers obtained 98 offensive possessions to Bostons 95 possessions. We select the Boston Celtics as our case study as they currently hold the best defensive rating of 96.8 according to NBA stats. Our reasoning for presenting offensive logos. Every other team is below 50% when it comes to having a positive ratings differential. Furthermore, Wilt averaged over 48 minutes each night, which means that he was a part of all 131 possessions during each match. League Champion: Los Angeles Lakers. According to per-100-possession statistics, for instance, Chris Paul is superior to Magic Johnson. Once we correct for the actual number of possessions, we can then start looking at the nuances of offensive and defensive ratings. In fact, the center owns five of the six highest PPG seasons of all-time as he rewrote the record books throughout his career. The statistic is pretty self-explanatory, as it measures the number of possessions a team uses in a typical 40-minute game. That said, using this as an illustration will help us for when we want to do this for real. Playmakers will always have lower points per 100 possessions compared to scorers. Thanks for stopping by! This is a team that ratings wise should finish with 40-42 wins and may be on target for either 36 wins or 46 wins. According to per-100-possession statistics, for instance, Chris Paul is superior to Magic Johnson. In order for Boston to catch Cleveland, they must score at least 3 extra points over their 95 possessions. All others? Nowadays, most teams average about 100 possessions each game while the top players are involved in about 75 of them. Despite having the smaller ellipse, they have the highest below break even line probability with 68.55%. The end of a possession occurs when the other team gains control of the ball, either via a made shot, rebound or a turnover. Nique did it in 87-88, Bernard King in 85-85, McGrady in 02-03. New comments cannot be posted and votes cannot be cast. We have tools and resources that can help you use sports data. Find the probability that, in a randomly selected interval of 100 possessions, the team scored exactly 112 points. Enter your email and we'll send you exclusive predictions and analysis. The Timberwolves, for instance, have endured at least four blow-out losses while handing out at least four blow-out wins. Other great scorers such as Lebron James and Kevin Durant are unfairly punished due to possessing different play styles or having better supporting casts. I'm not criticizing the addition, but applying team pace factors to individual performances is utterly fallacious, hence the primary reason why PER is a fraud. Quantifying NBA Hall of Fame Potential for NBA Players Using Random Forests, March Madness Bracketology: February 26th Edition, March Madness Bracketology: February 23rd Edition, March Madness Bracketology: February 20th Edition, Defensive Ratings: Estimation vs. That is, there are two random variables for each team. Free Throws Attempted per Game. Is the NBA Draft Lottery Fixed? Some teams may rack up points by simply playing faster but others, like Green Bay, have found that in some cases its slow and steady that wins the race. If we adjust Wilts 131 possessions played down to 75, his scoring average also takes a tumble. Conversely, at a slower pace, there are fewer possessions, but that slower pace better enables a star to milk and manipulate the possessions. How many more tables are you going to add? This is shown by the shifts to the right when comparing estimated ratings (solid lines) to the actual ratings (dashed lines). He would average less than 29 points each game instead of 50, which is a much more reasonable number. 1961-62: Wilt Chamberlain - 41.5 (53.6 ts%), 1984-85: Bernard King - 42.3 (58.5 ts%) 55 games, 1986-87: Michael Jordan - 46.4 (56.2 ts%), 1987-88: Michael Jordan (x2) - 43.6 (60.3 ts%), 1989-90: Michael Jordan (x3) - 42.7 (60.6 ts%), 1990-91: Michael Jordan (x4) - 42.7 (60.5 ts%), 1992-93: Michael Jordan (x5) - 43.0 (56.4 ts%), 1995-96: Michael Jordan (x6) - 42.5 (58.2 ts%), 1996-97: Michael Jordan (x7) - 41.8 (56.7 ts%), 2016-17: Russell Westbrook - 44.8 (55.4 ts%), 2018-19: James Harden (x2) - 48.2 (61.6 ts%), 2019-20: Giannis Antetokounmpo - 44.3 (61.3 ts%) 63 games, James Harden (x3) - 43.3 (62.1 ts%) 66 games, Youngest Player: 23 - Tracy McGrady 02-03, Honorable Mention: 2012-13: Carmelo Anthony - 41.4 (56.0 ts%). In fact, Green Bays mark was 2nd in the nation, behind only UConn. Here, we see that the Philadelphia 76ers (salmon) has a wildly large defensive variation. Opponent Effective Possession Ratio Points + Rebounds + Assists per Game Points + Rebounds per Game Points + Assists per Game Rebounds + Assists per Game Steals + Blocks per Game Opponent Points + Rebounds + Assists per Game Opponent Points + Rebounds per Game Opponent Points + Assists per Game Opponent Rebounds + Assists per Game Three Point Rate. Our reasoning for presenting offensive logos. TeamRankings.com is not affiliated with the National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) or March Madness Athletic Association, neither of which has supplied, reviewed, approved or endorsed the material on this site. To do this, we can assume something boldly naive and assume that ratings follow a Gaussian distribution. This website is using a security service to protect itself from online attacks. Per-Possession statistics are an easy way to nullify the distorting effects of paceand compare players more easily across teams and eras. That doesnt seem to make sense, right? Performance & security by Cloudflare. In fact, the Houston Rockets game mentioned above is barely below the break-even line. Only 3 of these players averaged 10 assists per 100p in the same season. We see that Boston is the tightest run ship of the bunch. Furthermore, the Celtics outscore opponents by 9.2 points per 100 possessions rather than 7.0 points per 100 possessions. Calculation. Comparison of Offensive Ratings (Blue) and Defensive Ratings (Red) using Estimated Possessions (Solid) and Actual Possessions (Dashed). That was quite a good mark, and better than 85% of teams. So, for example, Jordan has the most field goal attempts per 100 possessions for a player who played over 5000 career minutes for both the regular season and playoffs.So its adjusted for pace but volume is still very much a factor. There are several actions that could trigger this block including submitting a certain word or phrase, a SQL command or malformed data. With access to play-by-play data, we can focus on properly computing the number of possessions. However, if this correlation is -1, then for every point increase in offensive rating, the defensive rating decreases by a point. Phoenix (116.1) led the league. Comparing the distribution of Offensive Ratings and Defensive Ratings, we see that the overestimation in possessions dominoes into underestimating ratings. manute bol made 3.1x more blocks than baskets his rookie year, Sourced from basketball reference and espn.com. Table; Per 100 Team Possessions Shooting Advanced; Rk Season Lg Age Ht Wt G FG FGA 3P 3PA FT FTA ORB DRB TRB AST STL BLK TOV PF PTS FG% 3P% FT% Pace eFG% TOV% ORB% FT/FGA ORtg; 1: 2022-23 All Rights Reserved. Would have saved me a lot of research time over the years! All Rights Reserved. In fact, the Rockets have 64.24% of their distribution underneath the break even line, indicating that the Rockets are more capable of outscoring opponents over 100 possessions than the Golden State Warriors. In 2011-12 season Kevin Durant averaged 28ppg, Basketball reference says he averaged 37.5ppg per 100 possession. The normalization to 100 possessions allows for the ability to compare teams as pace of games can skew points per game comparisons. The answer is no. None of this is to say Wilt Chamberlain is a bad or even overrated scorer, this is to show impressive scoring seasons in the context of the most famous one. Expert Answer. Given these distributions, we find that the Atlantic Division is one of the stronger divisions in the league when it comes to offensive and defensive ratings. Using this illustration, the Cavaliers finished with an offensive rating of 104.08. For older years, NCAA data only has TOTAL rebounds instead of Offensive and Defensive rebounds. For example, the Warriors may typically outscore teams 118 to 107. By rejecting non-essential cookies, Reddit may still use certain cookies to ensure the proper functionality of our platform. BPR is interpreted as the number of points per 100 possessions better than the opponent the player's team is expected to be if the player were on the court with 9 other average players. On the other hand, heres a clip from the Bulls first-round game versus USF. = Frequency of the touch number among possessions PtsPoss = Points per 100 possessions (offensive rebounds not considered) So the median number of touches on an NBA possession works out to be 2, again only starting to count from the point where a player is in reasonable attacking position.In terms of average number of touches per possession, that works out to be 2.7 touches. Provide your answer below. TeamRankings.com is solely responsible for this site but makes no guarantee about the accuracy or completeness of the information herein. Similarly, if they score 110, their opponent may score around 100. The obvious place to start is Wilt Chamberlains legendary 1961-62 season when he averaged an absurd 50.4 PPG. Example 2) On Monday night, Utah came within one made field goal of tying the NCAA single-game record for field goal percentage. had 117.98 points / possessions / 100 in 2022-23. Love this feature! Before we start correcting team rankings, we first take a look at the estimated rankings. Comparing the two divisions, we see that while the Warriors are by and large the best team in the division (if not, arguably, the league), the rest of the division is not so hot. As noted at the top of the story, however, Green Bay was actually even better . The reality, however, is that the relationship between team pace factors and individual performance is not linear and can actually be inverted. We consider this the Enes Kanter effect. Welcome to Division I: Dixie State Trailblazers, Russell Westbrook Tests Positive for COVID-19, One of the most accurate ways of comparing stats across eras is by adjusting for pace, or possessions per game. All rights reserved. Non-blocked 2 Pt %. TeamRankings.com is not affiliated with the National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) or March Madness Athletic Association, neither of which has supplied, reviewed, approved or endorsed the material on this site. In fact, Every NBA team gets more than one point per possession when we actually count possessions. So, Buffalo certainly score more points per game than Green Bay. Furthermore, Wilt averaged over 48 minutes each night, which means that he was a part of all 131 possessions during each match. Boston Celtics. 0.5 * ((fga + 0.475 * fta - orb + tov) + (opp_fga + 0.475 * opp_fta - opp_orb + opp_tov)). Opponent Three Point Rate. Give it a try, it's free! Formula - How to calculate Points per Possession Statistical data provided by Gracenote. Note that the ORtg is 103.7 and DRtg is 96.8; which matches to the estimated model noted above with 103.74 and 96.79, respectively. Across the NCAAW, theres no real relationship between the pace a team plays at and the quality of its offense or defense. Theres a reason he was the unanimous MVP that season. Statistical data provided by Gracenote. Only 9 players have ever averaged 40+ pts per 100 possessions in a single season. In comparison, we can look at the Pacific Division and find that this is actually one of the weaker divisions in the league; thanks in part to the young teams of Los Angeles (Lakers), Sacramento, and Phoenix. Other great scorers such as. New comments cannot be posted and votes cannot be cast. Or do they just get more scoring chances? If we toss Boston into the mix, we find that all three teams are solidly below the break even line; as they are the three teams with the largest differentials. Now, if we compared the Warriors and Rockets offense, based on Offensive Ratings alone, we would state that the Warriors are the better of the two teams. Offensive rating is just the amount of points produced by a player per 100 possessions. . Ultimately, the greatest scoring season of all-time comes down to personal preference. Jordan Sibert has the most career points per game / possessions / 100, with 952.38. To put that difference into perspective, Green Bay would need nearly an extra quarter of basketball (over 7 minutes to be exact) to reach 77 possessions. PPP Calculation PPP=PTS/(FGA+0.44*FTA+TO) This section is showing information that is up to date as of the end of the 2022-23 NBA season. According to Ben Taylor, 2016 is the only season in NBA history in which a player has won the scoring title while also being the most efficient. All purely due to variability. In the possible forty possession counts, only one was underestimated: 93.88 possessions against 94 actual against the Knicks. Three things to consider when debating the greatest scoring seasons are volume, efficiency, and the value of each players scoring to their respective teams. HS Recruit Ranking: The quality of the player as a high school prospect based on high school composite recruiting rankings. What this suggests is that simply using ratings to rank teams is not robust. That was quite a good mark, and better than 85% of teams. Plotting all the possessions from the 20 Celtics games, we can easily see the overestimation from the NBA possession model. 2005-2023 Team Rankings, LLC. Since the Celtics only managed 104.21 points per 100 possessions; they did not meet the requirement to win and lost despite scoring more per possession than their opponent. 213.239.241.91 The league ratings come from NBA.com efficiency and pace data; in 2018-19, the league average offensive efficiency was 108.44 points per 100 possessions and the average pace was 101.91 possessions . Also note that the resulting ellipse is oblong. It happened in both opening night games. AST: Assist Ratio - the percentage of a team's possessions that ends in an assist. TeamRankings.com is solely responsible for this site but makes no guarantee about the accuracy or completeness of the information herein. The 1961-62 Philadelphia Warriors, on the other hand, played an estimated 131 possessions per game. Archived post. However not all the red dots (losses) are above the line. In other words, 'How many points is a player likely to generate when he tries?'" First Wilt averaged 48.5 minutes per game. Any chance you can estimate (or give out the formula) for NCAA basketball team possessions? (LogOut/ Their lack of efficiency can result in wasted possessions every game that couldve been put to better use by a more efficient player. What I need help with is the formula on how they came to this conclusion, how do they calculate per 100 possession stats? Archived post. The one thing everyone can agree on is that all of these players had extraordinary scoring seasons that were special in different ways. Green Bay isnt the only team with per-possession numbers at odds with their per-game marks, either. Due to this, the Sixers are a difficult team to rate above and below others. Free Throws Made per Game. All rights reserved. Now if we add the Houston Rockets to the mix, we can start comparing the two teams. There are fast teams with poor offenses, and slow teams with great ones. Consistently 4-6 possessions overestimated. Statistical data provided by Gracenote. For more information, please see our Is there a decent way to modify the formula when offensive rebounds are not available, and still get a reasonable estimate? That's it. To understand how this can be the case, lets look at how these teams play. PT/(FGA+0.44*FTA+TO) . Additional Possession and Play-by-Play Enhancements on Hockey-Reference, Introducing Per 100 Possessions Statistics, 1943-1998 College Basketball Stats, 8000+ Team Seasons, Best NBA Scoring Duos in One Game (Mailbag), Estimating Pace and Per-Possession Ratings, 1951-1973, 2013 Hall of Fame Candidates BBWAA Ballot, FBref Adds Womens World Cup History & Match Reports, How to Add Sports-References Sites To Your Phones Home Screen, List of NBA Players Waived in 2005 Under Allan Houston Rule Amnesty Clause, Professional Sports Leagues Steroid Policies, Ways Sports Reference Can Help Your Website, Participate In Sports Reference Research Studies, For Your Reference, A Sports Reference Podcast, Automatically Link Your Blogs to SR Player Pages. Cookie Notice A Statistical Analysis of 1994 2017. Offensive Rating In Dean's words, "Individual offensive rating is the number of points produced by a player per hundred total individual possessions. James Harden wins the volume title while Stephen Curry is the efficiency king, but the third aspect requires more analysis. Only Kobe Bryant and 1986-87 and 1987-88 Michael Jordan played on teams that lacked another player who averaged over 15 points per 75 possessions. has the most career points per game / possessions / 100, with 952.38. What this indicates that the average offensive and defensive ratings are nearly equal, but the Rockets standard deviations are tighter. Despite this, the season is early, and these numbers are close enough to zero that anything can change over the series of four games. Green Bay retained a significant edge even when pace was accounted for, allowing only 74 points per 100 possessions to Buffalos 84. What this indicates is that these teams will either excell when building leads or implode when giving up points. Logos were compiled by the amazing SportsLogos.net. Thanks as always for your hard work and dedication! The question is if they, in fact, really hold opponents to 96.8 points per 100 possessions. Opponent Free Throws Made per 100 Possessions. 2005-2023 Team Rankings, LLC. 2017-18 Player Stats: Per 100 Possessions 2019-20 Player Stats: Per 100 Possessions League Champion : Toronto Raptors Most Valuable Player : Giannis Antetokounmpo (27.7/12.5/5.9) Here, we see that every team is above 100 points per 100 possessions; thanks to corrected possession counts. Printed from TeamRankings.com - 2005-2023 Team Rankings, LLC. This means we must understand the distribution function for the bivariate Gaussian distribution; as this distribution is modeling our offensive and defensive ratings. Use Excel to find the probability Round your answer to three decimal places. All Rights Reserved. Jordan Sibert. Your IP: Tremendous work, thanks as always! Green Bay ranked in the bottom 10 in the nation with just 64 possessions a game. Trying to find the greatest scoring season then, requires us to look at some other candidates, who are likely to be familiar with most fans. Opponent FTA per FGA. As noted at the top of the story, however, Green Bay was actually even better, scoring more than 102 points per 100 possessions. Scan this QR code to download the app now. . We also see correlative phenomenons with teams such as the Warriors, Wizards, Hornets, Pelicans, Celtics, Thunder, Nets, Bucks, Heat, Lakers, and Bulls. If both teams had exactly 100 points per 100 possessions, or one point per possession, then the final score should be 98-95, Cleveland. (LogOut/ Both factors combine to allow Wilt to shoot a lot of shots, almost 40 per game. If you like this content, please support our work at Her Hoop Stats by subscribing for just $20 a year. Dont be fooled. How are Per 100 Possession Stats Calculated? Counting, Weekly Sports Analytics News Roundup - November 28th, 2017 - StatSheetStuffer. The SPORTS REFERENCE and STATHEAD trademarks are owned exclusively by Sports Reference LLC. Here, offensive and defensive ratings are being viewed as a bivariate random variable. The 90.7 will increase during Big Ten play, but overall there isn't much difference between their defensive play in 2004 and 2005. Watch our How-To Videos to Become a Stathead, Subscribe to Stathead and get access to more data than you can imagine. Points per Game; Average Scoring Margin; Offensive Efficiency; Floor % 1st Half Points per Game; 2nd Half Points per Game; Overtime Points per Game; . The question is if they, in fact, really hold opponents to 96.8 points per 100 possessions. All stats are compiled from Her Hoop Stats. Thanks. By accepting all cookies, you agree to our use of cookies to deliver and maintain our services and site, improve the quality of Reddit, personalize Reddit content and advertising, and measure the effectiveness of advertising. This section is showing information that is up to date as of the end of the 2022-23 NBA season. GAV17 . Illustratively, the bivariate Gaussian distribution reflects the Gaussian distributions on both the offensive and defensive ratings. Opponent Two Point Rate. Points Per Possession (PPP), is a player evaluation metric that refers to a player's scoring efficiency. Printed from TeamRankings.com - 2005-2023 Team Rankings, LLC. You can follow me on Twitter at @bill_huan. Its unfair to punish him for playing in an era with a faster tempo, but adjusting for pace seems to be the best way of evaluating stats. Basketball News, Analysis, History, Schedule, Rumors. However, stats such as PPG are often misleading without context since the raw numbers can be deceiving. I also write for The Canuck Way, The Hockey Writers and Hoops Habit. There will also be those who support Bryant and a young Jordan due to the value of their points to their respective teams. Interpreted as: NBA most points per 100 possessions by a player single season. Applying this distributional assumption to the Golden State Warriors, we can plot the 95% contour for their ratings distribution. Similarly, if a team has a higher offensive rating than another team is the offense truly better? document.getElementById( "ak_js_1" ).setAttribute( "value", ( new Date() ).getTime() ); This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Game by game comparison of Estimated Possessions and Estimated Ratings to Actual Possessions and Actual Ratings. Shaq averaged 40 points per game in 94-95 and 97-98. 2020-21 Player Stats: Per 100 Possessions 2022-23 Player Stats: Per 100 Possessions League Champion : Golden State Warriors Most Valuable Player : Nikola Joki (27.1/13.8/7.9) Sounds a little familiar, doesnt this? Finally, the value rho illustrates the correlation between a teams offensive and defensive rating. New comments cannot be posted and votes cannot be cast. Only 1 player has done this with a TS greater than 59%. If Green Bay gets 100 possessions and Buffalo gets 100 possessions, who scores more? According to. The Brooklyn Nets are also a curious case as they started out strong early in the season and their distribution has been slipping from below the break even line to above the break even line; as they are now being outscored by roughly 5 points per 100 possessions. The Sonics ranked 12th in the NBA in Offensive Rating, averaging 108.4 points per 100 possessions. The following table includes the top 10 highest scoring seasons of all time when, Looking at the list, we need to keep in mind that all of the players benefitted from enormous usage rates. What libraries do you use to create these graphs? What we are able to gain in insight here is how teams actually interact with their ratings and how we can actually use them to compare teams; as opposed to simply performing a sort. If you've been browsing recently, you've may have noticed that we added per-100 possession statistics tables to the player pagesand team pages(and for both the regular season and playoffs). Note: When explaining if using examples use KD's 2011-12 season. Glossary PACE: Pace Factor - the number of possessions a team uses per game. Color Scheme: Boston Celtics (green), Toronto Raptors (red), New York Knicks (orange), Brooklyn Nets (silver), and Philadelphia 76ers (salmon). Reddit, Inc. 2023. Reply . One of the most accurate ways of comparing stats across eras is by adjusting for pace, or possessions per game. and our Suggesting that they could score up to 100*(98 points /95 possessions) to get 103.16 points per 100 possessions and still lose. 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